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【彭博】馬暉洪:增加中國A股敞口,應對宏觀不確定性

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【字體: 2020-02-14來源:彭博(Bloomberg) 作者:佚名 訪問量:5

今早,國際權威財經媒體彭博(Bloomberg)專訪歌斐資產紅樹林CEO、歌斐首席投資官馬暉洪(William Ma),就當前國內形勢下的投資機會進行了探討。


【彭博】馬暉洪:增加中國A股敞口,應對宏觀不確定性


以下內容根據馬暉洪專訪翻譯: 


問:在冠狀病毒肆虐期間,您對中國及中國香港市場的投資策略有何變化? 您是否增加了市場下跌的風險敞口,還是在等待進一步的拋售?

馬暉洪:我們認為,目前的水平是長線投資者投資中國A股市場的良好切入點。我們使用逢低買入方法來應對短期市場波動,且于上周在港股被拋售的情況下,戰術性的加大了港股的敞口。

 

【彭博】馬暉洪:增加中國A股敞口,應對宏觀不確定性


我們看到,全球投資者如長期投資者、中國國內對沖基金在最近幾天也紛紛增加港股敞口,例如2月3號(A股于中國春節首個開放日下跌8%),當日有200億北向資金流入,這也是滬港通深港通成立至今單日第二大北向資金流入。


目前,預測MSCI中國2020年每股收益預計將增長至10%,市盈率為12倍。從市盈率和成長率(PEG)的比率來看,目前中國A股市場的PEG倍數為1.2倍,亞洲為1.13倍,歐洲為1.65倍,美國為2.38倍,這意味著從風險/回報的角度來看,中國A股市場最具有吸引力。


在最初的拋售之后,一些中國題材股如國內消費、5G將變得極具吸引力。我們對中國A股企業,具差異化且少依賴國內消費的高端制造商和商業服務軟件(SaaS)提供商保持長期看好態度 。

問:冠狀病毒對經濟會有何影響?您的投資觀點是什么?

馬暉洪:市場預計中國第一季度GDP將下降1-1.5%,這由病毒情況持續多久而定 。我們將采用杠鈴策略來增加中國A股的敞口,以應對宏觀不確定性:


1)自下而上:自下而上關注受病毒影響較小的公司,如電子商務、網絡游戲/娛樂、擁有強大網絡特許經營的教育/輔導服務提供商、AI/cloud /VR等技術服務提供商;


2)自上而下:政府刺激政策支持的行業,如中國各銀行的凈利潤率可能會受益于進一步放松流動性的措施。

問:中國央行最新的流動性注入和可能放松對影子銀行的打擊,以支持經濟。這將對中小企業產生多大的實際影響?再融資和債務違約意味著什么?

馬暉洪:在去年因貿易戰而導致經濟放緩期間,甚至在病毒爆發之前,政府就制定了各種有針對性的政策來幫助中小企業。


當然,中國央行最近注入的流動性是有幫助的,而且還有一些更直接的措施正在討論中,以幫助中小企業,比如給與企業1到3個月的免租期 。在再融資和債務違約方面,市場預計中國銀行體系的不良貸款率將在8%左右。


問:對中國和香港市場的三大投資策略是什么?

馬暉洪:對中國內地及香港的三大投資策略:


1)在香港上市的大型中資銀行的防御(固定收益替代)策略。目前該行業的股價為每股0.6倍,為2014年以來的歷史低點,股息率為5%;


2)看多商業軟件服務業(SaaS),其相對更少依賴國內消費,在電子商務、網絡游戲/娛樂、擁有強大網絡特許經營的教育/輔導服務提供商、AI/cloud /VR等技術服務提供商等特定領域的需求可能會增加;


3)如果國內消費(食品和飲料)和5G等消費市場進一步調整,可以逢低買入。

對亞洲及股債混合投資組合建議


1)增加股票投資敞口(特別是在印度,鑒于第4季度盈利強勁復蘇,以及越南,全球供應鏈進一步從中國轉移);


2)減少傳統固定收益敞口(主要擔心信用利差過窄和該類別投資者的高杠桿);


3)在戰略上保持對中國的增持(因為我們預計在寬松政策的支持下,今年晚些時候經濟增長將會復蘇)。

其它逆向投資觀點:
賣中國市場看跌期權,以捕捉高隱含波動率水平和潛在的市場復蘇。


附:英文

Any changes to your investment strategies for China/HK markets amid the coronavirus? - Have you added any exposures from the market dip or should you wait for further sell-off?


We believe current level is a good entry point for long term investors investing in China A-shares market. We are using buy-the-dip approach in short term volatile market, and tactically increased our long H-share exposure last week aim the sell off. We are seeing global investors long term investors as well as domestic China hedge fund increased exposure in last few days as well, for example on Feb 3 (the first day China A-share reopen and tanked 8%), there was $2.6b USD northbound flow in that day, which is the 2nd largest daily northbound flow since the stock connect program start.


Currently 2020E EPS growth for MSCI China is expected to be 10% and trading at 12x P/E. From Price Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio perspective, currently the China A-share market is trading at 1.2x, vs Asia 1.13x, Europe 1.65x and US 2.38x, implying the China A-share market is attractive from a risk/reward perspective.


After the initial selloff, some crowded China A-shares themes such as domestic consumption and 5G is start getting attractive again when sell down continue. We remain long term constructive on China A-shares high end manufacturers and business service software (SaaS) providers aim their differentiation and less dependent on domestic consumption.

 

Economic impact from the coronavirus and how that affects your investment views

 

Market is expecting China Q1 GDP to be reduced by 1-1.5%, and it is a function of how long the virus situation last. We would use a barbell approach to increase our China A-share exposure aim the macro uncertainty:

 

1) Bottom up: Focus on bottom up story and companies that are less impacted by the virus, such as e-commerce, online games/entertainments, education/tutoring service providers with strong online franchise, tech service providers such as AI/clouds/VR.


2) Top down: Sectors that are supported by government’s stimulus policy, such as the Chinese banks’ NIM could benefit from further liquidity loosening measures.


PBOC's latest liquidity injection and possible easing on shadow bank crackdown to support the economy. How much would this actually translate to SMEs? What does mean for refinancing and debt defaults?

 

The government have various targeted policy to help SMEs during the economic slowdown due to trade war last year even before the virus situation. Certainly the latest liquidity injection by PBOC is helping, and there are also more direct measures to help SMEs being discussed such as large landlords waving the rent by 1-3 months. On refinaincing and debt defaults, market is expecting NPL ratio of the Chinese banking system is around 8%.

 

Top 3 investment strategies for China & HK


For China & HK

1) Long large cap Chinese banks listed in Hong Kong as defensive (fixed income substitute) play. Currently the sector is trading at 0.6x Price/Book, historical low since 2014 and generating 5% dividend yield.


2) Long business service software (SaaS) providers aim they are less dependent on domestic consumption, and might see increase of demand in certain areas such as e-commerce, online games/entertainments, education/tutoring service providers with strong online franchise, tech service providers such as AI/clouds/VR.


3) Buy-on-dip on previous crowded themes should the correction go deeper, such as domestic consumption (food and beverages) and 5G. 


 For Asia and balanced portfolio:

1) increasing equity exposure (in particular in India, given the strong earning recovering in 4Q19 and Vietnam, further global supply chain shift from China); and

2) reducing traditional fixed income exposure (given our concern on the tight credit spread and leveraged yield hungry capital in this asset class); and

3) stay overweight China strategically (as we expect growth will recover later in the year supported by accommodative policy).

 

- Any contrarian views

Sell put options on China market to capture the high implied volatility level and potential market recovery.



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